Predicting the effect of promoting ultra-low energy buildings in hot summer and warm winter regions on CO2 emission

Abstract

The construction sector's significant share of overall energy use and carbon emissions makes it a crucial area for societal efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction. Developing ultra-low energy buildings (ULEBs) is a key strategy for achieving the “dual carbon” goals in the construction industry. This paper uses Guangdong Province as a case study to develop a ULEBs emission reduction potential calculation model based on factors such as population dynamics, urbanization rate, per capita building area, building energy consumption structure, CO₂ emissions coefficients, and ULEBs promotion rate. The study evaluates the emission reduction potential of promoting ULEBs in regions with hot summers and warm winters and analyzes the impact of various factors on ULEBs emission reduction potential. The results show that by 2060, under the most aggressive promotion and energy consumption structure scenarios, energy consumption levels could decrease by 65 % compared to 2020, resulting in a reduction of 79.8 million tons of CO₂. Among the influencing factors, population, promotion rate, and energy-saving rate have the greatest impact on the energy-saving and emission reduction potential of ULEBs. Following these are per capita public building area, per capita urban residential building area, and the urbanization rate. To further reduce CO₂ emissions in the construction field, it is necessary to refine the energy consumption patterns of buildings and augment the electrification rate of their operations.