Indian power sector decarbonization: Net-zero by 2050 or 2070

Abstract

The deep decarbonization of India's power sector, responsible for 40 % of national greenhouse gas emissions, is essential for meeting economy-wide net-zero targets. Understanding the current energy landscape requires assessing past achievements, leveraging resources, embracing technological advancements, and implementing effective policies. A thorough analysis is vital to identify gaps in achieving our Nationally Determined Contributions, ultimately facilitating net-zero goals. The urgency to mitigate emissions, heightened by climate-induced events and the need for renewable energy integration, calls for a reconsideration of net-zero timelines. Delayed action poses significant risks to ecosystems and economies globally. This paper explores how different pathways to net-zero emissions for power sector by 2050 & 2070 target years impact the future electricity mix, costs, generation profiles, and emission trajectories. We employ the energyRt optimization model, a bottom-up framework capturing regional, seasonal, and diurnal variations of renewable energy sources for thirty years, from 2020 to 2050. Preliminary analysis suggests current renewable resource estimations might not be sufficient for a 2050 net-zero goal. To meet the projected 6273 TWh demand by 2050, installed capacity would range from 2042 GW to 3100 GW. The base case emission trajectory reaches 2.4 GtCO₂/year in 2050 with a grid emission factor of 0.369 tCO₂/MWh. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 with CCS requires 33.37 % less investment than without CCS. The findings emerging from this analysis provide valuable insights into the power sector decarbonization pathways available to India in its pursuit of net-zero emissions.