Observed Variability and Future Projections of Urban Heatwaves in Romania

Abstract

The crossroad between built-up areas and extreme heat generates severe consequences on both socio-ecological systems and the natural environment, and the cities are the most vulnerable. The impact is already significant in the present climate and it will be exacerbated under climate change in many regions, including Romania and especially its southern part. The heatwaves (HWs) are a major risk for our cities as they put constant pressure on population, infrastructure and services for several consecutive days. The urban HWs in 41 Romanian cities are analysed in terms of magnitude, amplitude, duration, number and frequency, as well as the variability of the yearly occurrence of the first and last HW events. The study focuses on the warm season (May–September) and refers to the observed variability (1961–2020) and future projections (2021–2050). The main findings reveal that the occurrence of HWs is not conditioned by geographical and climatic conditions and the cities in any region may experience public health risks associated with extreme heat. This requires permanent monitoring of the phenomena, including the present characteristics and estimating future variations according to different scenarios. Considering the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events expected soon, there is a clear need for region-specific adaptation, and policymakers should prioritise strategies to protect vulnerable people.