Spatial modeling and risk assessment of chagas disease vector distribution in Espírito Santo, Brazil: A comprehensive approach for targeted control

IF 1.7 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.sste.2025.100710

Stefanie Barbosa Potkul Soares , Gustavo Rocha Leite , Guilherme Sanches Corrêa-do-Nascimento , Karina Bertazo del Carro , Blima Fux

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Abstract

Chagas disease, a persistent and life-threatening infection caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a significant public health concern in Latin America. Despite the Brazilian State of Espírito Santo (ES) not being classified as a high-risk area, the presence of epidemiologically significant triatomines like Panstrongylus megistus suggests a latent risk of T. cruzi transmission. This study, employing spatial modeling, assesses the distribution of key triatomine species in ES and predicts areas at risk for Chagas disease transmission. Our models, constructed with Maxent, KUENM, and QGIS, identified high suitability for most species in ES's southeast and south regions, with P. diasi showing high suitability in the central-west. Notably, 13 autochthonous cases of vector-borne Chagas disease were reported between 2001 and 2023. The risk assessment highlighted significant risk areas corresponding to the locations of these cases, indicating that most regions in ES are at higher risk of P. megistus presence. These findings provide crucial insights for enhancing regional epidemiological surveillance and inform targeted vector control strategies, effectively addressing latent risks.

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巴西Espírito圣托的恰加斯病媒介分布的空间建模和风险评估：目标控制的综合方法

恰加斯病是一种由原生动物克氏锥虫引起的持续和危及生命的感染，仍然是拉丁美洲的一个重大公共卫生问题。尽管巴西圣州Espírito （ES）未被列为高风险地区，但存在大圆形线虫等具有流行病学意义的三粒线虫，表明存在克氏t型病毒传播的潜在风险。本研究采用空间模型，评估了南美锥蝽主要物种的分布，并预测了南美锥蝽病传播的风险地区。利用Maxent、KUENM和QGIS构建的模型发现，大多数物种在ES的东南部和南部地区具有较高的适宜性，而P. diasi在中西部地区表现出较高的适宜性。值得注意的是，2001年至2023年期间报告了13例媒介传播的恰加斯病本地病例。风险评估突出了与这些病例所在位置相对应的重要风险区域，表明ES的大多数地区存在较大的巨斑弓形虫风险。这些发现为加强区域流行病学监测和为有针对性的病媒控制战略提供了重要见解，有效地应对潜在风险。

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来源期刊

Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

8.80%

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