Promoting or inhibiting? The impact of farmland use transition on rural household income: Evidence from the Three Northeast Provinces, China

Abstract

Farmland use transition (FUT) is a significant global phenomenon in rural areas, profoundly impacting rural residents' lives and livelihoods. To improve rural living standards and promote rural development and revitalization, it is essential to understand the relationship between the multidimensional characteristics of FUT and rural residents' income (RRI). Based on the theory of FUT, we constructed a comprehensive index system of FUT containing dominant transformation (DFUT) and recessive transformation (RFUT), collected panel data from 2000 to 2020 using the Three Northeast Provinces as an example, and evaluated them using the Entropy-TOPSIS method. Kernel density estimation was utilized to portray the characteristics of changes in farmers' income levels. We also established a theoretical framework of the impact of FUT on RRI and verified it using a Stepwise Panel Regression model and the two-stage least squares method (2SLS). We found that (1) From 2000 to 2020, the overall FUT, DFUT, and RFUT exhibited a stable upward trend. Spatially, the Sanjiang Plain (SJP) emerged as a high-value area for FUT, whereas regions including the Changbai Mountain Region (CBMR) and parts of the Liao River Plain (LRP) were identified as low-value areas; (2) Rural household income levels experienced a continuous upward trend, with growing regional disparities, manifesting an overall spatial pattern of "higher in the east, lower in the west, higher in the north and south, and lower in the central areas”; (3) The impact of RFUT on RRI is relatively significant and robust. Factors such as the relative proportion of cultivated area for grain crops (PS) and the multiple cropping index (CI) effectively enhanced RRI. In contrast, the scale of household farmland management (HFMS) had negative effects. Our results highlight that the sustained and stable optimization of the multidimensional landscape of farmland use can effectively promote income growth for farmers, confirming the crucial role of strategic land use management in stabilizing farmers' livelihoods. We provide targeted recommendations to promote rational farmland use transition, increase farmers' income, and achieve rural revitalization.