Has China completed the supply-side structural reform of construction land supply? Evidence from 335 cities

Abstract

China needs to comprehend the implementation effects of supply-side structural reforms related to land factors. This understanding is crucial for adjusting the national land allocation strategy. Taking 335 Chinese cities as an example, this paper proposed a perspective to analyze land supply from supply-side structural reform. Additionally, a “supply - demand” framework was built to explore the land supply impact mechanism. The results show that: (1) As the reform advances, the proportion of incremental land supply to the total land supply has been effectively controlled. The average annual growth rate of 4.62% (2010–2015) has shifted to an average annual decrease of 2.23% (2015–2020). The proportion of stock land supply has consistently escalated since 2015, reversing the yearly average decrease of 4.43% (2010–2015) to an average annual increase of 2.10% (2015–2020). (2) The tertiary industry has obtained 76.27% of the total scale of state-owned construction land supply, which is 3.31 times that of the secondary industry. The land supply for the service and social management industries has increased, while other industries have decreased. (3) The scale of land supply is significantly influenced by GDP per unit of construction land area (LNGDP_CL) and the total fixed asset investment (LNTFAI). The study concludes that the implementation of structural reforms on the supply side of land is beginning to show results. Future efforts should focus on aligning incremental land supply with indicators such as population size and consumption levels, and on extensively integrating per capita construction land area to supply existing land stocks. The study contributes information to bolster China's policy of optimizing land allocation, and can also provide new research path for other countries seeking effective land allocation.