Unveiling patterns and drivers of long-term rural settlement changes from the urban-rural gradient perspective: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China

Abstract

Rural settlements (RUS) serve as spatial carriers for both residential and industrial activities in rural regions, reflecting the regional cultural and productive paradigms of rural communities. These settlements are undergoing substantial transformations driven by rapid urbanization, yet the patterns of evolution and underlying driving mechanisms of RUS remain unclear. In this study, we utilized 30-m resolution RUS data from 1990 to 2020 to investigate the morphological evolution of settlements in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region across regional, county, and urban-rural gradients. The impact of urbanization on RUS morphology was assessed using landscape pattern indices and structural equation modeling (SEM). Our results showed that the number of RUS increased by 1308 and the area expanded by 2559.9 km², representing growths of 2.76% and 19.66%, respectively. RUS in the vicinity of Beijing and Tianjin exhibited a higher rate of morphological change, highlighting the significant influence of location on settlement evolution. A comparative analysis across urban-rural gradients indicated that RUS near urban center have experienced an increase in average size, accompanied by a decline in total size and number. This evolution has led to a shift toward more complex morphology and a more concentrated distribution. Cross-validation of the SEM across various sample sizes confirmed its reliability, demonstrating that urbanization's direct impact on RUS morphology is generally negative and insignificant, while its indirect effects through socio-economic, environmental, and infrastructural mediators are positive. This study provides valuable insights into the evolutionary characteristics of RUS across urban-rural gradients and clarifies the mechanisms through which urbanization shapes their morphological evolution, contributing to our understanding of rural transformation under rapid urbanization.