Understanding the spatial distribution patterns and dominant determinants of farmland abandonment in China

Abstract

Amidst escalating food demand, farmland abandonment poses a new challenge to food security. However, an insufficient understanding of the pattern and its dominant determinants are major obstacles to effective policymaking. To address the gap, this study established a theoretical framework for analyzing farmland abandonment, and employing a quantile regression model for empirical analysis. Data were drawn from two national land surveys to reveal the spatial distribution pattern and dominant determinants of farmland abandonment. The findings indicated that farmland abandonment ratio in China from 2009 to 2019 was 4.07% (5.19 Mha), with higher values observed in dry farmlands, sloping farmlands, and farmlands with high slopes. Spatially, farmland abandonment was more prevalent in hilly and mountainous areas as well as in non-major grain-producing areas at regional level. Additionally, farmland abandonment primarily occurs in the northwestern and southeastern coastal areas at the county level. In the northwestern agro-pastoral transition zones and southeastern mountainous and hilly regions, there are significant banded and banded-aggregation distribution patterns. Moreover, cultivation conditions and socioeconomic factors significantly affect farmland abandonment. As farmland abandonment increased, the influence of the former increased gradually. Conversely, in areas with severe farmland abandonment, the influence of the latter was weakened further. To strengthen management of farmland abandonment, the relevant policy initiatives should focus on advancing smart agriculture, enhancing farmland infrastructure, innovating machinery and equipment, expanding the agricultural industry chain, and refining the land lease market to reduce cultivation costs and enhance farmland output.