Beyond intentions: Transaction uncertainties and developers’ adoption of nonconventional housebuilding technologies

Abstract

Despite the need for the housing sector to be more innovative, there are limited empirical insights into the influence of uncertainty on innovative housebuilding technology adoption (whether as greenbuilding technologies or otherwise). In exploring the dimensions of uncertainty, this paper asks the following questions: does reducing uncertainty enhance adoption likelihood? Which dimensions of uncertainty, if reduced, will generate significant increases in innovation adoption likelihood among developers? These questions are examined using survey data from residential developers in Ghana and an extended version of transaction cost economics as the theoretical background. We extracted three dimensions of transaction-related uncertainties, which cumulatively explained 62% of the total variance of uncertainty. Only market demand uncertainties were related to adopting four of the six nonconventional walling materials examined. The probability of adopting these technologies increased by 9.3–14.1 percentage points with an increase in predictability of market demand. Increased predictability of housing supply-side conditions did not affect the likelihood of adopting any of the walling technologies. Our findings further reveal a contrast between adoption intentions and actual practices. The findings suggest that innovation policy should address the multidimensional nature of uncertainty concerning the specific technologies it seeks to influence their adoption.