The JCSS probabilistic model Code, future developments

Abstract

To assess and verify the reliability of structures, reliability based building codes allow for the application of full-probabilistic methods and semi-probabilistic methods (i.e. the partial factor method). In principle, both methods should be equivalent and lead to (approximately) the same reliability level. Therefore partial factors should be as much as possible determined based on a probabilistic background and calibration exercises. On the other hand, as the probabilistic design method may be considered as more rational and consistent than the partial factor design, there is a tendency to use probabilistic methods directly in the assessment of special of important new structures and also in the assessment of existing structures. In both the calibration exercise and in the full probabilistic assessment of structures, we face the problem that many assumptions have to be made. In particular in regard to the statistical modelling of random variables and in regard to accepted approximative methods of calculation. This often brings the engineer to a challenging position. In the past years the JCSS probabilistic model code (PMC) has served as an often-consulted operational code for this purpose. In the present paper, the JCSS PMC and its future developments are presented and discussed.