Educational outcomes in times of conflict and post-conflict

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the 2016 Peace Agreement in Colombia on three educational outcomes: gross coverage rates, dropout rates, and academic performance. An empirical analysis was carried out at the municipal level by means of two-way fixed effects difference-in-difference and dynamic difference-in-difference methods. Findings indicate that Colombia has had positive results in the three aforementioned categories since the signing of the agreement, both in the municipalities most affected by the armed conflict, as well as in the least affected ones. Access to education has been greater and the dropout rates have been lower, while the performance in state examinations has increased. However, the gaps in dropout rates and results in standardized tests have widened between municipalities most and least affected by violence. The dynamic difference-in-difference approach shows that the effects of the Peace Agreement on dropout rates are initially significant but fade away, while the effects for gross coverage appear after a few periods. On the other hand, the consequences on academic achievement are negative and persist in time. In terms of public policies, these results suggest that Colombia has improved the quality and quantity of education, but more attention should be devoted to the municipalities most affected by violence.