Assessing the effects of climate change on the Gulf of Mexico wave climate using the COWCLIP framework and the PRECIS regional climate model

Abstract

The present study utilized downscaled wind projections from the PRECIS regional climate model to project and assess changes in wind-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico under a warmer climate. The methodology entailed simulating waves using a high-resolution and validated third-generation wave model. The wave model was first forced with historical winds from the Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) to evaluate the accuracy of the model for studying wave climate. The wave model was then forced by downscaled HadGEM winds from PRECIS (HadRM3P) to quantify wave climate change from the historical period (1980–2005) to a future period (2030–2054) under a high emission scenario. Wave climate patterns were analyzed using the framework developed by the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP), which ensures consistency across different studies, allowing researchers to compare results from various regions and models more effectively. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting more intense wave conditions in a warmer climate. The quantified effects of global warming on future wave conditions can inform key economic sectors in the region, such as oil and gas production, shipping, tourism, and fisheries.