Consequences of water and land scarcity and unhealthy diets on the productive capacity of the middle East and North Africa

Abstract

Water and land scarcity and their impacts on global food and water security and healthy diet represents a paramount challenge, especially for vulnerable regions like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region A significant research gap persists in understanding the impact of climate change, population growth, and the overexploitation of water resources on the socioeconomic and political performance of countries. Therefore, we aim to investigate the effects of water and land scarcity, and unhealthy diets on the productive capacity index of MENA countries over a 20-year period (2001–2020) using time series trend, panel data econometric modeling and the fixed effects method. Accordingly, the results of the fixed effects model analysis showed that renewable water resources, arable to agriculture land ratio and exposure to a diet low in whole grains and legumes had the greatest negative impact on the productive capacity index of MENA countries, while the institutional quality and education level had the greatest positive impact on the index. The visualization analysis also revealed a significant diversity in water and land resources among MENA countries.