Association of ambient temperatures with suicide attempts and violence with the future projections under climate change scenarios: a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in South Korea.

Abstract

Background: Both climate change and intentional injuries (suicide attempts and violence) are recognized as crucial factors that affect human health. Previous studies revealed the association between ambient temperatures and deaths due to intentional injuries but mostly about the consequences of severe events. Our study aimed to examine suicide attempts and violence incidence including mild and moderate cases with future projections, using each injury's burden about climate change scenarios.

Methods: We collected nationally representative cases of suicide attempts (8,512 cases) and violence (9,742 cases) from the Korea National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury Survey from 2005 to 2019. We performed a two-stage analysis with a time-stratified case-crossover design to evaluate the associations of outdoor temperatures with suicide attempts and violence using historical data (2005-2019). Based on the estimated associations in the historical period, we projected the excess suicide attempts and violence attributable to ambient temperatures in the future (2020-2099) using the three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.

Results: We found positive associations between outdoor temperatures with suicide attempts and violence individually, and the association with violence was more linear. The excess suicide attempts attributable to temperatures in the historical period were around 11%, and it was expected to increase in all SSP scenarios (up to 14.35%). For violence, the excess risk of violence attributable to temperatures in the historical period was around 3.5%, and it was also estimated to increase in the future (up to 7.92%).

Conclusions: The nationwide study about South Korea shows that there are associations between an increase in outdoor temperatures and increased risks of suicide attempts and violence, and each excess injury related to temperature is projected to grow under the SSP scenarios. Our findings might provide informative evidence for relevant action plans against climate change and intentional injuries.