Do Elections Promote Conflict? A Quantitative Text Analysis of Postwar Iraqi News Coverage

Abstract

This article seeks to investigate whether conflict-motivating coverage in newspapers increases during the election period, employing a quantitative text analysis of several major newspapers in postwar Iraq. In the aftermath of the war in Iraq, the exclusion or inclusion of the former Baathist regime emerged as one of the most contentious issues in elections. Consequently, this study analyzes how the exclusion or inclusion of the former regime was asserted during election periods and the degree of emphasis in reporting, aiming to identify conflict-inspiring coverage during elections. The analysis encompasses over 500,000 articles from various prominent newspapers. In summary, while election cycles typically feature coverage that denies inclusiveness and exacerbates fragmentation, official government-affiliated newspapers tend to consistently underscore inclusiveness, even during election periods.