Temporal trends of presumed cardiac origin out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence in Guangzhou, southern China: A 10-year consecutive analysis

Abstract

Background

Despite the rising disease mortality rates, there is a dearth of studies on the incidence and trends of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in China. This study aims to investigate the incidence and temporal trends of presumed cardiac origin OHCA in Guangzhou, Southern China, from 2011 to 2020.

Methods and results

In this population-based retrospective cohort study, pre-hospital data from the Guangzhou Emergency Medical Service (GZ-EMS) from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed. Crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated respectively. ASIRs were calculated using the 2000 national census population as the standard population. The Joinpoint software was used to calculate the Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in the incidence of OHCA over the study period. From 2011 to 2020, 44,375 EMS-assessed OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were recorded. Overall, the crude incidence rate of OHCA was 53.1 per 100,000 on average. AAPC was 7.0% (95% CI: 4.3%–9.8%). Age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) was 38.4 per 100,000 on average, with an average annual increase of 4.8% (95% CI: 2.4%–7.3%). The crude and ASIR of OHCA increased in men, while the ASIR changed more moderately in women. The age group of ≥80 years had the highest rate of increase. The 20–29 and 70–79 age groups also demonstrated notable increases.

Conclusions

From 2011 to 2020, Guangzhou experienced a notable upward trend in both crude and ASIR of OHCA, with significant variations observed across gender and age demographics. This trend calls for a deeper investigation into the underlying factors.