Nomograms for predicting overall and cancer-specific survival among patients with prostatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a population-base study.

IF 2.8 3区医学 Q2 ONCOLOGY Expert Review of Anticancer Therapy Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI:10.1080/14737140.2025.2464926

Zhan Zhao, QianSan Zhu

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Abstract

Background: Prostatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) is a rare malignant tumor, and research on its clinical features and prognosis is scarce. This study aims to develop prognostic nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with PDA.

Research design and methods: Among the 1,049 identified patients, an 8:2 random division yielded development and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors, which were then incorporated into nomograms predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS for patients with PDA. The prognostic nomograms were evaluated using Concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with internal validation performed through Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).

Results: Independent prognostic factors, including age, marital status, lymph node status, distant metastasis, surgery method, chemotherapy, and Gleason score, were incorporated into the developed nomograms. The results of training (C-index: OS = 0.74, CSS = 0.69; AUC value: OS = 0.822-0.892, CSS = 0.836-0.873) and internal validation (C-index: OS = 0.78, CSS = 0.77) indicated our nomograms had good performance The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram had a good clinical net benefit.

Conclusions: This study successfully established and validated prognostic nomograms tailored for PDA patients.

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预测前列腺导管腺癌患者总体和癌症特异性生存的nomogram：一项基于人群的研究。

背景：前列腺导管腺癌（PDA）是一种罕见的恶性肿瘤，对其临床特征及预后的研究较少。本研究旨在建立预测PDA患者总生存期（OS）和肿瘤特异性生存期（CSS）的预后图。研究设计和方法：在1049例确定的患者中，8:2随机分组产生开发和验证队列。进行单因素和多因素Cox分析以确定独立预后因素，然后将其纳入预测PDA患者1、3和5年OS和CSS的nomogram。采用一致性指数（C-index）和受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评估预后nomogram，并通过决策曲线分析（Decision curve Analysis， DCA）进行内部验证。结果：独立的预后因素，包括年龄、婚姻状况、淋巴结状况、远处转移、手术方式、化疗和Gleason评分被纳入到发展的nomographic中。训练结果(C-index: OS = 0.74, CSS = 0.69；AUC值：OS = 0.822-0.892, CSS = 0.836-0.873)和内部验证（C-index: OS = 0.78, CSS = 0.77）表明我们的nomogram具有良好的表现。临床决策曲线表明nomogram具有良好的临床净收益。结论：本研究成功建立并验证了为PDA患者量身定制的预后图。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Expert Review of Anticancer Therapy 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

3.00%

发文量

100

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Expert Review of Anticancer Therapy (ISSN 1473-7140) provides expert appraisal and commentary on the major trends in cancer care and highlights the performance of new therapeutic and diagnostic approaches. Coverage includes tumor management, novel medicines, anticancer agents and chemotherapy, biological therapy, cancer vaccines, therapeutic indications, biomarkers and diagnostics, and treatment guidelines. All articles are subject to rigorous peer-review, and the journal makes an essential contribution to decision-making in cancer care. Comprehensive coverage in each review is complemented by the unique Expert Review format and includes the following sections: Expert Opinion - a personal view of the data presented in the article, a discussion on the developments that are likely to be important in the future, and the avenues of research likely to become exciting as further studies yield more detailed results Article Highlights – an executive summary of the author’s most critical points.