Skillful prediction of Indian Ocean Dipole index using machine learning models

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated six machine learning models for their skill in predicting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results based on the IOD index predictions at 1–8 month lead time indicate that the AdaBoost model with Multi-Layer Perceptron as the base estimator, AdaBoost(MLP), to perform better than the other five models in predicting the IOD index at all lead times. Interestingly, the IOD predictions of AdaBoost(MLP) had an anomaly correlation coefficient above 0.6 at almost all lead times. The results suggest that the AdaBoost(MLP) machine learning model to be a promising tool for predicting the IOD index with a long lead time of 8 months. Analysis revealed that the machine learning model predictions are aided by the signals from the Pacific region, owing to co-occurrences of some of the IODs with El Nino-Southern Oscillations.