Machine Learning-Driven Passenger Demand Forecasting for Autonomous Taxi Transportation Systems in Smart Cities

Abstract

Autonomous Taxis (ATs) have seen remarkable global proliferation in recent years owing to the widespread adoption and advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) across various domains. ATs play a crucial role in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in smart cities. However, the effectiveness of ITS relies heavily on accurately forecasting the passenger demand for ATs, which poses a significant challenge. Precise prediction of passenger demand is essential for minimising waiting times and unnecessary cruising of ATs in metropolitan areas, which helps conserve energy. To address this issue, this study proposed an adaptive Bayesian Regularisation Backpropagation Neural Network (BRBNN) augmented with a Machine Learning (ML) model to predict passenger demand in different regions of metropolitan cities specifically for ATs. The study conducted extensive simulations using a real-world dataset collected from 4781 taxis in Bangkok, Thailand. Using MATLAB2022b, the proposed model compared various state of art methods and existing research. The results indicate that proposed model outperforms existing methods in terms of performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and R-squared ($R^2$) for passenger demand forecasting. These findings validated the effectiveness of the prediction model and its ability to accurately forecast passenger demand for ATs, thereby contributing to the advancement of efficient transportation systems in smart cities.