Impacts of changes in climate extremes on maize yields over Mainland China

IF 5.6 1区农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Food Security Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI:10.1007/s12571-024-01501-9

Simin Deng, Xuezhi Tan, Bingjun Liu

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Abstract

Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of climate extremes, but the influencing magnitudes of climate extreme events on maize yield in China remain unclear. Here, the impact of climate extremes on maize yield over Mainland China during the past four decades is assessed based on the concurrence of climate extremes (mean climate) and maize yields using the event coincidence analysis. Climate extremes during the maize growing season are represented by 14 extreme climate indices. Results showed that 95% of maize planting regions over Mainland China showed significant increases in maize yields, with an average increase of 0.071 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ from 1982 to 2016. Correlations between maize yields and climate indices are spatially heterogeneous. The area where maize is significantly affected by temperature extremes changes (2.7–15.4% of grids) is greater than the area affected by precipitation extremes (3.8–10.7% of grids). Positive maize yield events are more likely to coincide with positive temperature extremes and negative precipitation extremes. The proportion of years with significant events coincidence rates between positive yield events and positive evapotranspiration events is the highest, accounting for 94.29%. Our results implied that to adapt to the impact of climate events on maize yield, reliable extreme climate projection and maize planting growth season adjustment are required to ensure food security.

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来源期刊

Food Security FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

14.00

自引率

6.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Food Security is a wide audience, interdisciplinary, international journal dedicated to the procurement, access (economic and physical), and quality of food, in all its dimensions. Scales range from the individual to communities, and to the world food system. We strive to publish high-quality scientific articles, where quality includes, but is not limited to, the quality and clarity of text, and the validity of methods and approaches. Food Security is the initiative of a distinguished international group of scientists from different disciplines who hold a deep concern for the challenge of global food security, together with a vision of the power of shared knowledge as a means of meeting that challenge. To address the challenge of global food security, the journal seeks to address the constraints - physical, biological and socio-economic - which not only limit food production but also the ability of people to access a healthy diet. From this perspective, the journal covers the following areas: Global food needs: the mismatch between population and the ability to provide adequate nutrition Global food potential and global food production Natural constraints to satisfying global food needs: § Climate, climate variability, and climate change § Desertification and flooding § Natural disasters § Soils, soil quality and threats to soils, edaphic and other abiotic constraints to production § Biotic constraints to production, pathogens, pests, and weeds in their effects on sustainable production The sociological contexts of food production, access, quality, and consumption. Nutrition, food quality and food safety. Socio-political factors that impinge on the ability to satisfy global food needs: § Land, agricultural and food policy § International relations and trade § Access to food § Financial policy § Wars and ethnic unrest Research policies and priorities to ensure food security in its various dimensions.