Commodity Dependence and Optimal Asset Allocation

Abstract

We present a model to explain the diversification benefits of incorporating commodities into a portfolio of traditional assets from the perspective of domestic investors. Utilizing a sample of 38 countries from 2000 to 2020, we show that investors in high-commodity dependence countries generally do not benefit from adding commodities to their portfolios while investors located in low-commodity dependence countries usually do. Our results thus show that local contexts matter and that commodities may augment a diversified portfolio if investors are not excessively exposed to commodity risk through their country's economic structure.