Cross-scale prediction for the Laurentian Great Lakes

Abstract

In this paper, for the first time, all five Great Lakes are simulated using a 3D baroclinic model using a single, seamless unstructured mesh without nesting, including adjacent flood plains and watershed inflows to better connect the hydrodynamic model to the hydrologic model. The hydraulic controls at Sault St Marie and Niagara Falls are simulated using an internal flow boundary approach with the observed flow. The model is shown to exhibit good skills for total water level (TWL) and temperature, with RMSE of 9.5 cm for TWL and ∼1.6 °C for surface temperature and temperature profiles from a 60–day simulation. Sensitivity results reveal the importance of hydrologic forcing even for this short-term simulation. Results from a 210-day simulation indicate that the model is capable of capturing major lake-wide circulation patterns discussed in previous studies and providing further details in those patterns. The new model can potentially serve as a base to unify Great Lakes modeling while simultaneously providing flexibility for site specific studies in any areas of interest.