Statistical analysis of TEC anomalies as earthquake precursors using GPS data for the case study of Assam, India

IF 2.8 3区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-02-15 Epub Date: 2024-12-12 DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2024.12.028

Timangshu Chetia, Saurabh Baruah, Santanu Baruah, Ashim Gogoi

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Abstract

In Northeast India, 17 earthquakes with Mw > 4.1 were recorded, with 14 of them preceded by significant anomalies in ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). Probability analysis showed that if TEC anomalies exceed 2σ for over 16 days, there is an 80 % likelihood of an earthquake. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed a low R² (∼0.017) between hourly TEC and factors like Dst, Ap-Index, IMF-Bz, and F10.7. However, the models for hourly data were significant (p ∼2.08x10^-14). Hence, we used multiple regressions on daily data to identify hours when independent variables best explained TEC variability. The study aims to develop a model to determine the epicentral distance, precursory time, and magnitude of potential near-field earthquakes in the Tezpur (Eastern Himalaya) region, based on TEC anomaly peaks. However, Mw > 4.1 earthquakes may not always show TEC perturbations due to factors like geography, solar activity, and radon. The findings are thoroughly discussed in the manuscript.

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利用GPS数据对TEC异常作为地震前兆的统计分析——以印度阿萨姆邦为例

印度东北部发生了17次Mw >级地震；记录了4.1次，其中14次在电离层总电子含量（TEC）显著异常之前。概率分析表明，如果TEC异常超过2σ且持续16天以上，则发生地震的可能性为80%。多元线性回归分析显示，每小时TEC与Dst、Ap-Index、IMF-Bz和F10.7等因子之间的R2（~ 0.017）较低。然而，每小时数据的模型是显著的（p ~ 2.08x10-14）。因此，我们对每日数据使用多元回归来确定自变量最能解释TEC变异性的时间。该研究旨在建立一个基于TEC异常峰的模型，以确定Tezpur（东喜马拉雅）地区潜在的近场地震的震中距离、前兆时间和震级。然而，Mw >；由于地理、太阳活动和氡等因素，地震可能并不总是显示TEC扰动。这些发现在手稿中进行了详尽的讨论。

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来源期刊

Advances in Space Research 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

11.50%

发文量

800

审稿时长

5.8 months

期刊介绍： The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc. NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR). All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.