Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides considering rainfall temporal patterns

IF 3.7 2区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI:10.1007/s10064-025-04144-y

Binru Zhao, Roberto J. Marin, Wen Luo, Zhaoyuan Yu, Linwang Yuan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recent advancements in rainfall observation and forecasting have enabled the real-time identification of rainfall temporal patterns, thereby enhancing the prediction of landslides by accounting for their temporal dynamics. However, conventional landslide prediction methodologies rely on average rainfall characteristics, such as intensity (I) and duration (D), overlooking the influence of rainfall temporal details. To overcome this limitation, this study proposes an innovative approach to defining rainfall thresholds that integrate rainfall temporal patterns. These thresholds are designed to provide probabilistic estimations of landslide occurrences for rainfall events characterized by constant intensity and duration, while considering the temporal dynamics. Investigating the impact of rainfall temporal patterns on landslide occurrences reveals that the initiation of landslides is primarily influenced by the infiltrated rainfall rather than the total rainfall amount. Specifically, rainfall temporal patterns characterized by fewer high-intensity values tend to result in greater infiltration, thereby increasing the likelihood of landslide triggering. Furthermore, rainfall concentrated in the early and middle stages of an event is associated with a higher probability of landslide occurrence. This study's findings underscore the importance of incorporating rainfall temporal patterns into landslide early warning systems, thereby facilitating more effective risk mitigation strategies.

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来源期刊

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

11.90%

发文量

445

审稿时长

4.1 months

期刊介绍： Engineering geology is defined in the statutes of the IAEG as the science devoted to the investigation, study and solution of engineering and environmental problems which may arise as the result of the interaction between geology and the works or activities of man, as well as of the prediction of and development of measures for the prevention or remediation of geological hazards. Engineering geology embraces: • the applications/implications of the geomorphology, structural geology, and hydrogeological conditions of geological formations; • the characterisation of the mineralogical, physico-geomechanical, chemical and hydraulic properties of all earth materials involved in construction, resource recovery and environmental change; • the assessment of the mechanical and hydrological behaviour of soil and rock masses; • the prediction of changes to the above properties with time; • the determination of the parameters to be considered in the stability analysis of engineering works and earth masses.