Predicting COPD Readmission: An Intelligent Clinical Decision Support System.

Abstract

Background: COPD is a chronic disease characterized by frequent exacerbations that require hospitalization, significantly increasing the care burden. In recent years, the use of artificial intelligence-based tools to improve the management of patients with COPD has progressed, but the prediction of readmission has been less explored. In fact, in the state of the art, no models specifically designed to make medium-term readmission predictions (2-3 months after admission) have been found. This work presents a new intelligent clinical decision support system to predict the risk of hospital readmission in 90 days in patients with COPD after an episode of acute exacerbation. Methods: The system is structured in two levels: the first one consists of three machine learning algorithms -Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Multilayer Perceptron-that operate concurrently to predict the risk of readmission; the second level, an expert system based on a fuzzy inference engine that combines the generated risks, determining the final prediction. The employed database includes more than five hundred patients with demographic, clinical, and social variables. Prior to building the model, the initial dataset was divided into training and test subsets. In order to reduce the high dimensionality of the problem, filter-based feature selection techniques were employed, followed by recursive feature selection supported by the use of the Random Forest algorithm, guaranteeing the usability of the system and its potential integration into the clinical environment. After training the models in the first level, the knowledge base of the expert system was determined on the training data subset using the Wang-Mendel automatic rule generation algorithm. Results: Preliminary results obtained on the test set are promising, with an AUC of approximately 0.8. At the selected cutoff point, a sensitivity of 0.67 and a specificity of 0.75 were achieved. Conclusions: This highlights the system's future potential for the early identification of patients at risk of readmission. For future implementation in clinical practice, an extensive clinical validation process will be required, along with the expansion of the database, which will likely contribute to improving the system's robustness and generalization capacity.