Decreasing trend of gastroschisis prevalence in the United States from 2014 through 2022: Is attributed to declining birth rates in young, high-risk gravidae

Abstract

Objectives

To investigate the prevalence trend of gastroschisis in the United States between 2014 and 2022.

Methods

A cross-sectional retrospective analysis of the Centers for the United States live births between 2014 and 2022. Pregnancies and neonatal singleton live births with documented isolated gastroschisis were included. Neonates with other major congenital anomalies and known chromosomal abnormalities were excluded. Prevalence per 10,000 live births along with 95 % confidence intervals was estimated.

Results

Among 32,088,301 singleton live births, 6804 cases of isolated gastroschisis were identified (Point prevalence: 2 in 10,000 live births). A significant decline in gastroschisis prevalence was observed, decreasing from 2.86 per 10,000 live births in 2014–1.55 per 10,000 live births in 2022 (P < 0.001). The risk of gastroschisis was significantly higher in teen and nulliparous gravidae, with prepregnancy tobacco use, and among socially vulnerable populations (underweight, < 12th-grade education, Medicaid, non-Hispanic Indigenous Americans). The drop in gastroschisis births from 2014 to 2022, compared to non-gastroschisis births, is more significant in maternal age < 20 years, nulliparous, BMI < 18.5, and in smokers prior to pregnancy than in the overall population (P = 0.02, 0.0008, <0.0001, <0.0001, and 0.01 respectively). All of the associated maternal factors had a significant decline in prevalence (P < 0.001), which may influence the decreasing trend of gastroschisis. There was no perceived considerable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastroschisis trends.

Conclusions

The study highlights a notable decline in gastroschisis prevalence mostly attributable to a declining birth rate in the highest at-risk strata, suggesting recent increases in birth rates among these at-risk gravidae may reverse the trend of declining gastroschisis disease prevalence. These findings support the need for ongoing further research to understand effective means of sustaining this decreasing trend.