{"title":"Media emotion intensity and commodity futures pricing","authors":"Yeguang Chi, Lina El-Jahel, Thanh Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100460","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of media emotion intensity on commodities futures returns. Emotion intensity measures the proportion of emotional content relative to factual content in media news. The media emotion intensity factor generates an annual premium of 13% after transaction cost. This premium is more pronounced for commodities with low media coverage, high momentum, high basis-momentum, high hedging pressure, and backwardation. Emotion intensity significantly predicts the trading tendencies of both commercial and non-commercial traders and the cross-section of commodity futures returns at both portfolio and individual levels. We also find that media emotion intensity predicts future commodities’ sentiment. Further, other commonly considered risk sources cannot subsume the predictability of the media emotion intensity factor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45111,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commodity Markets","volume":"37 ","pages":"Article 100460"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Commodity Markets","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851325000042","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/2/7 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This study investigates the impact of media emotion intensity on commodities futures returns. Emotion intensity measures the proportion of emotional content relative to factual content in media news. The media emotion intensity factor generates an annual premium of 13% after transaction cost. This premium is more pronounced for commodities with low media coverage, high momentum, high basis-momentum, high hedging pressure, and backwardation. Emotion intensity significantly predicts the trading tendencies of both commercial and non-commercial traders and the cross-section of commodity futures returns at both portfolio and individual levels. We also find that media emotion intensity predicts future commodities’ sentiment. Further, other commonly considered risk sources cannot subsume the predictability of the media emotion intensity factor.
期刊介绍：
The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.
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