[Dynamic Coordination Effect of Pollution Reduction, Carbon Reduction, and Economic Development in Guangdong Province].

Abstract

Based on the panel data of the regional GDP balance of pollutant and carbon dioxide emissions in 21 cities of Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2020, the dynamic equilibrium relationship between pollution reduction and carbon reduction and the economy was investigated using a PVAR model. The results were as follows： ① A self-growth mechanism of inertia effect exists in the Guangdong economy compared with pollution reduction and carbon reduction. ② The causal relationship between the economy and pollution control was mainly reflected in the inhibition effect of pollution discharge on the economy. The response of water pollutant discharge to economic shock changed from positive to negative, and the response curve of air pollutants to economic shock was V-shaped. The economy had a promoting effect on pollutants. ③ No two-way causal relationship exists between carbon emissions and economy, and the positive weakening impact of the economy on carbon emissions lagged behind, which accords with the Kuznets curve hypothesis. ④ A complex and subtle relationship exists between the economy and the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The economy had a positive promoting effect on the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, while the backwardness of the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction inhibited the economy to a certain extent. To achieve the "win-win" situation of high economy and ecological protection in Guangdong Province, we must give full play to the "double dividend" effect of the economy driving the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, promote the optimization of industrial structure, increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, consolidate the foundation of emission reduction and carbon reduction, and thoroughly implement the strategic deployment of carbon emission peaking.