Assessment of urban rail transit development using DPSIR-Entropy-TOPSIS and obstacle degree analysis: A case study of 27 Chinese cities

Abstract

Urban rail transit plays a significant role in promoting urban sustainable development. Conducting a comprehensive evaluation of urban rail transit is crucial for the future development of urban rail transit systems. This study focuses on the various factors influencing the development of urban rail transit. Based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, an evaluation framework comprising 19 indicators was established. The logical relationships and directions of influence among these indicators were verified using the Structural Equation model (SEM). Then, the contribution rates of each indicator to the development of urban rail transit were calculated using the Entropy Weighted TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) model. Finally, the obstacles degree model was employed to uncover the facilitators and obstacles in the development of urban rail transit. The results showed that: (1) In China, cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen exhibit notably advanced development in urban rail transit compared to other cities. (2) The DPSIR-Entropy-TOPSIS model identifies four distinct modes of rail transit development, each associated with specific influencing factors. (3) Through obstacle degree diagnostics, the analysis reveals the following ranking of obstructive impacts for indicators: social factors > urban rail operational factors > economic factors > infrastructure factors > investment factors > citizen experience factors > other factors. Notably, the obstructive effects of economic, social, and investment factors have shown annual increases. Our findings offer policy recommendations for decision-makers from three key perspectives: improving subsidy and management efficiency, enhancing the quality of urban rail transit for public benefit, and maximizing the economic benefits derived from urban rail transit.