Review and prediction: Carbon emissions from the materialization of residential buildings in China

Abstract

Previous studies on carbon emissions from the materialization of residential buildings differ significantly in their case sources, methods, and research findings. Consequently, it is essential to investigate the general characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in this context. A systematic review was carried out with research papers on carbon emissions of the materialization stage of residential buildings in China. Analysis of the carbon emission results reveals an average carbon emission intensity (CEI) of 409.04 kgCO₂e/m². Through standardized coefficients and significance tests, the effects of 20 driving factors were quantified. Four explanatory models were developed using enter regression to interpret the results of existing multi-family building samples. Additionally, four predictive models were created through backward elimination to assist designers in predicting CEI during the conceptual design phase. The findings indicate that minimizing new construction areas is the most effective strategy for reducing total carbon emissions, and adopting prefabricated construction methods significantly decreases CEI. Conversely, enhancements in building performance may inadvertently increase CEI. Other key impact factors on CEI include building age, climate zone, and calculating object. It is important to recognize that the driving factors for the three sub-stages of production, transportation, and construction vary considerably, and thus should be studied separately whenever feasible. This research contributes to promoting carbon reduction in the building industry by advancing research on the calculation of carbon emissions.