[Construction and Validation of A Prognostic Model for Lung Adenocarcinoma Based on Ferroptosis-related Genes].

Abstract

Background: Ferroptosis-related genes play a crucial role in regulating intracellular iron homeostasis and lipid peroxidation, and they are involved in the regulation of tumor growth and drug resistance. The expression of ferroptosis-related genes in tumor tissues can be used to predict patients' future survival times, aiding doctors and patients in anticipating disease progression. Based on the sequencing data of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, this study identified genes involved in the regulation of ferroptosis, constructed a prognostic model, and evaluated the predictive performance of the model.

Methods: A total of 1467 ferroptosis-related genes were obtained from the GeneCards database. Gene expression profiles and clinical data from 541 LUAD patients were collected from the TCGA database. The expression data of all ferroptosis-related genes were extracted, and differentially expressed genes were identified using R software. Survival analysis was performed on these genes to screen for those with prognostic value. Subsequently, a prognostic risk scoring model for ferroptosis-related genes was constructed using LASSO regression model. Each LUAD patient sample was scored, and the patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the median score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated to assess model performance, followed by validation in an external dataset. Finally, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the independent prognostic value and clinical relevance of the model.

Results: Through survival analysis, 121 ferroptosis-related genes associated with prognosis were initially identified. Based on this, a LUAD prognostic risk scoring model was constructed using 12 ferroptosis-related genes (ALG3, C1QTNF6, CCT6A, GLS2, KRT6A, LDHA, NUPR1, OGFRP1, PCSK9, TRIM6, IGF2BP1 and MIR31HG). The results indicated that patients in the high-risk group had significantly shorter survival time than those in the low-risk group (P<0.001), and the model demonstrated good predictive performance in both the training set (1-yr AUC=0.721) and the external validation set (1-yr AUC=0.768). Risk scores were significantly associated with the prognosis of LUAD patients in both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses (P<0.001), suggesting that this score is an important prognostic factor for LUAD patients.

Conclusions: This study successfully established a LUAD risk scoring model composed of 12 ferroptosis-related genes. In the future, this model is expected to be used in conjunction with the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system for prognostic predictions in LUAD patients.