Development and validation of a new prognostic tool for hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing resection: The Weighted Alpha-Fetoprotein Tumor Burden Score (WATS)

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to develop and validate a novel prognostic index, the Weighted Alpha-Fetoprotein Tumor Burden Score (WATS), for predicting outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing resection.

Materials and methods

A total of 772 resected HCC patients were included. WATS was developed and validated using an 8:2 cohort split. The score was derived from multivariate Cox regression, resulting in the formula: WATS = 0.73 × tumor number +0.17 × tumor size +0.1 × ln AFP. The time-dependent ROC curve assessed the score's predictive ability, while restricted cubic splines evaluated the dose-response relationship between WATS and prognostic outcomes. Kaplan–Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression further validated the prognostic accuracy.

Results

In the training cohort, AUCs for progression-free survival (PFS) at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years were 0.683, 0.664, 0.661, 0.633, and 0.620, respectively; for overall survival (OS), they were 0.757, 0.732, 0.703, 0.672, and 0.670, respectively. In the validation cohort, AUCs for PFS were 0.711, 0.654, 0.671, 0.662, and 0.684, respectively; for OS, they were 0.724, 0.688, 0.642, 0.698, and 0.721, respectively. WATS outperformed other complex indicators and staging systems. RCS analysis showed a linear relationship between WATS and outcomes. The nomogram based on WATS demonstrated excellent discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit.

Conclusion

WATS is a novel, reliable prognostic tool for HCC post-resection, offering enhanced patient stratification and risk assessment, thereby improving clinical management.