The burden of rheumatoid arthritis in China from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030

Abstract

Objectives

This study investigates the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on RA in China from 1990 to 2019, with a comparative analysis by gender, and projects the future burden of RA over the next decade.

Study design

A comprehensive analysis was performed using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the annual percentage change in RA, while the Age-Period-Cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. The Bayesian APC model was used to predict the trend of RA incidence in China from 2020 to 2030.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence and DALY associated with RA in China exhibited an upward trend, with varying rates of increase across different periods. The peak incidence occurred between the ages of 60–65 years for men and 55–60 years for women, with DALYs increasing with age in both genders. Incidence was negatively associated with vegetable consumption, while the consumption of other food items and alcohol showed positive associations. The Bayesian APC model predicts a decrease in RA incidence among both genders over the next decade, with women consistently exhibiting higher incidence rates than men.

Conclusions

The burden of RA remains substantial in China. Therefore, it is crucial to implement targeted health education and screening programs to prevent RA, especially among menopausal women.