Excess Mortality in Türkiye during 2020-2022: Regional and Time-Based Analysis.

Abstract

Background: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic significantly impacted global mortality, albeit Türkiye has been largely excluded from mortality studies owing to delayed data release and a lack of nationwide analyses.

Aims: To identify the excess mortality rates in Türkiye between 2020 and 2022, analyze the temporal trends and regional differences, and determine factors associated with excess deaths at the regional level.

Study design: A cross-sectional ecological analysis.

Methods: We analyzed all-cause mortality data from the Turkish Statistical Institute from January 2015 to December 2022. The projected deaths during 2020-2022 were derived from Quasi-Poisson Regression models applied to the 2015-2019 provincial mortality data, adjusting for seasonal trends, population offsets, and overdispersion. The results were aggregated to national and socioeconomic levels for comparative analyses. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between observed and projected deaths. P-scores and excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants were utilized as standardized metrics. Socioeconomic disparities were examined using the Socioeconomic Development Ranking of Provinces and Regions (SEGE-2017). We assessed the associations between excess mortality and vaccination coverage, elderly population ratio, intensive care unit beds per 100,000 population, and population per family physician.

Results: Türkiye experienced 247,640 excess deaths [95% confidence interval (CI): 176,405-315,204] from 2020 to 2022. Excess mortality peaked in 2021 with 121,426 excess deaths (27.2% P-score, 143.5 per 100,000 population). Lower vaccination coverage [estimate: -0.51, 95% CI: (-0.81, -0.20), p = 0.001] and higher population per family physician [estimate: 0.01, 95% CI: (0.00, 0.02), p = 0.005] were significantly associated with higher excess mortality. A higher elderly population ratio was positively associated with excess deaths [estimate: 1.41, 95% CI: (0.50, 2.32), p = 0.003]. Socioeconomically less developed regions (SEGE 5 and SEGE 6) exhibited higher P-scores (21.3% and 20.2%, respectively), indicating greater relative increases in mortality when compared with the relatively more developed regions.

Conclusion: Excess mortality in Türkiye during the COVID-19 pandemic was substantial, particularly in 2021, and was influenced by regional socioeconomic disparities, vaccination coverage, and healthcare access. These findings underscore the importance of addressing sociodemographic factors and strengthening primary healthcare services in pandemic responses.