Trend of HIV/AIDS disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021: An age-period-cohort model analysis

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES HIV Medicine Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI:10.1111/hiv.70009

Xiaxia He, Wenjie Zheng, Xin Wang, Yongpo Jiang, Weimin Zhu

{"title":"Trend of HIV/AIDS disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021: An age-period-cohort model analysis","authors":"Xiaxia He, Wenjie Zheng, Xin Wang, Yongpo Jiang, Weimin Zhu","doi":"10.1111/hiv.70009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background</h3>\n \n <p>Understanding the burden of HIV/AIDS in China over the last few decades is vital for creating effective control strategies.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>This study systematically retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, including information related to HIV/AIDS in China. It assessed the burden of HIV/AIDS using specific indicators and methods, such as incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the trends in disease burden, and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate the effects of age, period and cohort.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of HIV/AIDS in China increased for the total population, as well as for males and females. The age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates rose at average annual rates of 0.051, 0.056 and 2.629, respectively. Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that net drift values for incidence, mortality and DALY rates across all age groups were greater than 0 (<i>p</i> < 0.05), with local drifts peaking between the ages of 20 and 24. The risk of HIV/AIDS increased with age. Compared with the 2005–2009 reference period, overall, male and female incidence risks first increased and then decreased, while mortality and DALY risks continued to rise. Additionally, the risks for the 1945–1949 birth cohort also showed an increasing trend.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusion</h3>\n \n <p>In conclusion, the overall HIV/AIDS burden in China grew from 1990 to 2021. To combat this, future efforts should focus on educating and preventing transmission among adolescents and the elderly.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":13176,"journal":{"name":"HIV Medicine","volume":"26 5","pages":"773-784"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"HIV Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/hiv.70009","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Understanding the burden of HIV/AIDS in China over the last few decades is vital for creating effective control strategies.

Methods

This study systematically retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, including information related to HIV/AIDS in China. It assessed the burden of HIV/AIDS using specific indicators and methods, such as incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the trends in disease burden, and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate the effects of age, period and cohort.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of HIV/AIDS in China increased for the total population, as well as for males and females. The age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates rose at average annual rates of 0.051, 0.056 and 2.629, respectively. Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that net drift values for incidence, mortality and DALY rates across all age groups were greater than 0 (p < 0.05), with local drifts peaking between the ages of 20 and 24. The risk of HIV/AIDS increased with age. Compared with the 2005–2009 reference period, overall, male and female incidence risks first increased and then decreased, while mortality and DALY risks continued to rise. Additionally, the risks for the 1945–1949 birth cohort also showed an increasing trend.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the overall HIV/AIDS burden in China grew from 1990 to 2021. To combat this, future efforts should focus on educating and preventing transmission among adolescents and the elderly.

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

1990-2021年中国艾滋病疾病负担趋势：年龄-时期-队列模型分析。

背景：了解中国在过去几十年中的艾滋病负担对于制定有效的控制策略至关重要：本研究系统地检索了 2021 年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，包括与中国艾滋病相关的信息。研究采用了特定的指标和方法，如发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs），对艾滋病负担进行了评估。研究采用联结点回归模型分析疾病负担的趋势，采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和队列的影响：结果：从 1990 年到 2021 年，中国总人口以及男性和女性的艾滋病发病率、死亡率和残疾调整寿命年数均有所上升。年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和残疾调整寿命年均增长率分别为 0.051、0.056 和 2.629。年龄-时期-队列模型分析表明，所有年龄组的发病率、死亡率和残疾调整寿命年率的净漂移值均大于 0（p）：总之，从 1990 年到 2021 年，中国艾滋病的总体负担有所增长。为解决这一问题，未来的工作重点应放在教育和预防青少年和老年人中的传播上。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

HIV Medicine 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

10.00%

发文量

167

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： HIV Medicine aims to provide an alternative outlet for publication of international research papers in the field of HIV Medicine, embracing clinical, pharmocological, epidemiological, ethical, preclinical and in vitro studies. In addition, the journal will commission reviews and other feature articles. It will focus on evidence-based medicine as the mainstay of successful management of HIV and AIDS. The journal is specifically aimed at researchers and clinicians with responsibility for treating HIV seropositive patients.