The Epidemiological Trends and Prediction of Brain and Central Nervous System Cancer Incidence and Mortality, 1992-2021: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Abstract

Introduction: The study uniquely focuses on the global incidence, mortality, and temporal trends of brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer from 1992 to 2021. It explores the association between the disease burden and factors such as age, period, and birth cohorts, and provides forecasts for future incidence and mortality.

Methods: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data from 1992 to 2021, we calculated incidence, and deaths and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) and assessed temporal trends using the average annual percent change derived from joinpoint regression analysis. To explore the impacts of age, period, and birth cohort in greater depth, we applied an age-period-cohort model. Additionally, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to forecast the global epidemiological trends from 2022 to 2031.

Results: The global incidence of brain and CNS cancer has increased from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, and the number of mortalities has risen by 80.62%. The incidence ASR was highest in high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and showed an increasing trend. Conversely, the mortality ASR displayed downward trends in high-middle and high SDI regions. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent increase in incidence risk and a decline in mortality. From 2022 to 2031, the global mortality ASR was predicted to decrease whereas the incidence ASR increases slowly.

Conclusion: The global trends in brain and CNS cancer incidence and mortality generally showed an increasing trend with considerable heterogeneity. Furtherly, high SDI regions were displayed where healthcare systems could conduct earlier and better medical interventions with better outcome for brain and CNS cancer.