Reliability analysis of underground water-sealed storage caverns stability: Method and application

IF 7.4 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI:10.1016/j.tust.2025.106550

Wei Li , Chenghua Hong , Liping Qiao , Jingyi Ma , Zhenhua Peng , Zhechao Wang

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Abstract

The reliability analysis method considers the uncertainty of rock parameters, making the stability analysis of underground engineering more accurate. A reliability analysis method applicable to assess the stability of underground water-sealed storage caverns was proposed in the study. In the method, the performance functions were established from the perspectives of the plastic zone and cavern displacement by modifying the elastic–plastic solution of the circular tunnel. The reliability index and probability of failure were calculated using the first-order reliability method and the reliability analysis results calculated by the proposed method and the Monte Carlo method was used to verify the correctness of the proposed method. Finally, the reliability analysis method was used to evaluate the reliability of an underground water-sealed storage caverns stability in southern China. The reliability index and probability of failure of the storage caverns with different support ways were obtained and the optimization design of the support system was determined based on the reliability analysis results.

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地下水封储库稳定性可靠性分析：方法与应用

可靠度分析方法考虑了岩石参数的不确定性，使地下工程的稳定性分析更加准确。提出了一种适用于地下水封储库稳定性评价的可靠度分析方法。该方法通过对圆形隧道的弹塑性解进行修正，从塑性区和洞室位移的角度建立了性能函数。采用一阶可靠度法计算了可靠性指标和失效概率，并利用所提方法和蒙特卡罗方法计算的可靠性分析结果验证了所提方法的正确性。最后，采用可靠度分析方法对南方某地下水封储库稳定性进行了可靠度评价。得到了不同支护方式下洞室的可靠度指标和失效概率，并根据可靠性分析结果确定了支护系统的优化设计。

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来源期刊

Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

18.80%

发文量

454

审稿时长

10.8 months

期刊介绍： Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology is an international journal which publishes authoritative articles encompassing the development of innovative uses of underground space and the results of high quality research into improved, more cost-effective techniques for the planning, geo-investigation, design, construction, operation and maintenance of underground and earth-sheltered structures. The journal provides an effective vehicle for the improved worldwide exchange of information on developments in underground technology - and the experience gained from its use - and is strongly committed to publishing papers on the interdisciplinary aspects of creating, planning, and regulating underground space.