Patrick A Clay, Emily D Pollock, Enrique M Saldarriaga, Preeti Pathela, Michelle Macaraig, Jane R Zucker, Bindy Crouch, Ian Kracalik, Ian H Spicknall
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Early in the 2022 mpox outbreak, the U.S. recommendation was to administer two doses of the JYNNEOS® vaccine 4 weeks apart. However, because of limited vaccine supply, New York City (NYC) prioritized single dose vaccination. We estimated mpox cases averted by this strategy compared to strategies that prioritized 2-dose vaccination for a smaller portion of the population. We fit a network transmission model to incident mpox cases in NYC. Model output consisted of predicted cases over time when vaccine doses were administered with the 'first-dose priority' strategy, compared with counterfactual simulations where doses were administered to those eligible for a second dose ahead of those waiting for a first dose ('intermediate' strategy), or where individuals were pre-allocated full courses of the vaccine ('second-dose priority' strategy). We estimate that NYC's strategy averted 66% [IQR:47%-78%] of potential mpox cases compared to no vaccination. This 'first-dose priority' strategy averted 0.6% [IQR:-11%-9.8%] more cases than the 'intermediate' strategy, and 17% [IQR:2.9%-38%] more cases than the 'second-dose priority' strategy. Thus, for the 2022 mpox outbreak in NYC, pre-allocating vaccine doses to ensure full vaccination in a high-priority subset of the population would have increased the size of the outbreak.
期刊介绍:
The American Journal of Epidemiology is the oldest and one of the premier epidemiologic journals devoted to the publication of empirical research findings, opinion pieces, and methodological developments in the field of epidemiologic research.
It is a peer-reviewed journal aimed at both fellow epidemiologists and those who use epidemiologic data, including public health workers and clinicians.