Enhanced EEG Forecasting: A Probabilistic Deep Learning Approach.

Abstract

Forecasting electroencephalography (EEG) signals, that is, estimating future values of the time series based on the past ones, is essential in many real-time EEG-based applications, such as brain-computer interfaces and closed-loop brain stimulation. As these applications are becoming more and more common, the importance of a good prediction model has increased. Previously, the autoregressive model (AR) has been employed for this task; however, its prediction accuracy tends to fade quickly as multiple steps are predicted. We aim to improve on this by applying probabilistic deep learning to make robust longer-range forecasts. For this, we applied the probabilistic deep neural network model WaveNet to forecast resting-state EEG in theta- (4-7.5 Hz) and alpha-frequency (8-13 Hz) bands and compared it to the AR model. WaveNet reliably predicted EEG signals in both theta and alpha frequencies 150 ms ahead, with mean absolute errors of 1.0 ± 1.1 µV (theta) and 0.9 ± 1.1 µV (alpha), and outperformed the AR model in estimating the signal amplitude and phase. Furthermore, we found that the probabilistic approach offers a way of forecasting even more accurately while effectively discarding uncertain predictions. We demonstrate for the first time that probabilistic deep learning can be used to forecast resting-state EEG time series. In the future, the developed model can enhance the real-time estimation of brain states in brain-computer interfaces and brain stimulation protocols. It may also be useful for answering neuroscientific questions and for diagnostic purposes.