Evaluation of clinical benefits and economic value of weight loss in a Swedish population using a simulation model.

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the 10-year clinical benefits and economic value of weight loss in a Swedish population with obesity using a value of weight-loss simulation model.

Methods: Data on the prevalence of and costs associated with obesity and obesity-related complications (ORCs) were applied within an adapted simulation model to evaluate weight-loss benefits for a 2023 Swedish population over 10 years. The 10-year incidence of 10 ORCs and treatment costs in a random cohort of 10,000 individuals were estimated for a stable weight scenario and four weight-loss (5%-20%) scenarios.

Results: The model included 887,272 individuals with obesity aged 20 to 60 years. Hypertension (24.1%), asthma (20.9%), dyslipidemia (18.3%), and type 2 diabetes (10.6%) were highly prevalent. For 10,000 individuals, a 5% to 20% weight loss was estimated to prevent ORCs over 10 years, leading to annual savings between 9.0 million Swedish krona (SEK)/€0.8 million (5% weight loss) and 30.0 million SEK/€2.6 million (20%) by 2033.

Conclusions: Annual treatment costs of ORCs in Sweden will double over 10 years, and weight loss would be associated with significant savings because of the reductions in the incidence of ORCs. Therefore, there is an urgent need to effectively treat obesity to prevent morbidity.