Global burden of gallbladder cancer in 2022 and predictions to 2042.

Abstract

Background & aims: This study aims to provide updated estimate on the global burden of Gallbladder cancer (GBC) in 2022 and to predict the trends through the year 2042.

Methods: Data were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2022 database. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI). Trends up to the year 2042 were predicted based on global demographic projections by HDI.

Results: Worldwide, there were 122,469 new GBC cases and 89,045 deaths identified in 2022. While the highest absolute number was observed in South Central Asia and Eastern Asia, particularly India and China, countries in South America, particularly Bolivia, showed the highest age-standardised rate. Medium HDI countries showed more than double the incidence and mortality rates compared to low HDI countries. Over half of GBC cases and deaths occurred in individuals aged 50-74 years. Predictions indicate a 65.3 % increase in new cases and a 67.6 % increase in deaths by 2042, with High HDI countries and Low HDI countries experiencing the largest absolute and percentage increases, respectively.

Conclusions: The global burden of GBC is substantial, especially concentrated in South Central Asia, Eastern Asia and South America. With significant increase of burden over the next 20 years, there is an urgent need for effective cancer control strategies in regions exhibiting great GBC burden.