Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2025.

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to project cancer incidence and mortality for 2025 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.

Materials and methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2022 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, while cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2023 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2025. A joinpoint regression model was applied to identify significant changes in trends, using only the most recent trend data for predictions.

Results: A total of 304,754 new cancer cases and 84,019 cancer deaths are expected in Korea in 2025. The most commonly diagnosed cancer is projected to be thyroid cancer, followed by the colorectal, lung, breast, prostate and stomach cancers. These six cancers are expected to account for 63.8% of the total cancer burden. Lung cancer is expected to be the leading cause of cancer-related deaths, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, stomach, and gallbladder cancers, together comprising 66.6% of total cancer deaths.

Conclusion: The increasing incidence of female breast cancer and the rise in prostate and pancreatic cancers are expected to continue. As aging accelerates, cancer commonly found in older adults are projected to rise significantly.