Clémence Ramier, Camelia Protopopescu, Vincent Di Beo, Lucia Parlati, Fabienne Marcellin, Fabrice Carrat, Tarik Asselah, Marc Bourlière, Patrizia Carrieri, the ANRS/AFEF CO22 HEPATHER Study Group
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background and Aims
Early assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk could improve long-term outcomes in people with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Some existing HCC predictive scores are not easily implementable. We developed easy-to-use HCC predictive scores based on behavioural and routine bio-clinical data in people with chronic HBV infection.
Methods
Eight-year follow-up data was analysed from people with chronic HBV infection enrolled in the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. Patients were randomly split into two samples (training/testing). A multivariable Cox model for time to HCC was estimated on the training sample. The HCC predictive score was computed by summing the points assigned to model predictors, normalising their coefficients over a 10-year age increment, and rounding to the nearest integer. The Youden index identified the score's optimal risk threshold. Comparisons with existing predictive scores were performed on the testing sample.
Results
In the study population (N = 4370; 63% of men; 65% of < 50 years old), 56 HCC cases occurred during 25,900 follow-up person-years. Two HCC predictive scores were defined: SADAPTT (daily soft drink consumption, age, hepatitis Delta infection, unhealthy alcohol use, platelet count, heavy tobacco smoking, and HBV treatment) and ADAPTT (the same predictors except for daily soft drink consumption), with ranges 0–13 and 0–14, respectively, and values ≥ 3 indicating a high HCC risk. Their performances were similar to existing scores.
Conclusions
We developed two effective behaviour-based HCC predictive scores, implementable in many settings, including primary care and decentralised areas. Further studies are needed to validate these scores in other datasets.
期刊介绍:
Liver International promotes all aspects of the science of hepatology from basic research to applied clinical studies. Providing an international forum for the publication of high-quality original research in hepatology, it is an essential resource for everyone working on normal and abnormal structure and function in the liver and its constituent cells, including clinicians and basic scientists involved in the multi-disciplinary field of hepatology. The journal welcomes articles from all fields of hepatology, which may be published as original articles, brief definitive reports, reviews, mini-reviews, images in hepatology and letters to the Editor.