Dry Aggression: The Impact of Drought on Violent Crime Trends in California Counties

Abstract

The potential impact of drought and low precipitation on crime rates is of growing importance in the era of worsening climate change. Evidence shows that drought and meteorological factors have impacts on the social interactions, familial behaviors, and economic opportunities of the communities affected. Informed by strain theories and displaced aggression, this study seeks to understand the relationship between drought levels and the incidence of violent crime across counties in California between 2010 and 2019. Using open-source data, the current study examines if changes in monthly drought levels are associated with the incidence of violent crime, paying particular attention to the role of agriculture in California counties and how the impact of drought accumulates overtime. Our findings suggest a small, positive relationship between drought and violent crime incidence in California counties and that this impact is lagged rather than immediate. Additionally, we do not find a difference between agriculture and non-agricultural counties in terms of the impact of drought nor do the effects of drought compound within counties.