Characterization of spatial and temporal evolution of carbon stock and multi-scenario prediction of Haba Lake Protected Area in Ningxia based on PLUS-InVEST model

Abstract

In this study, Ningxia Haba Lake National Nature Reserve was taken as the study area, and the carbon module of the InVEST model was applied to explore the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon stocks in the study area from 1990 to 2020 based on four periods of land use data, and to analyze the changes in land use and carbon stocks under three different scenarios in 2030 by combining with the PLUS model to forecast the changes in land use and carbon stocks. The results show that (1) except for the decrease in the area of cultivated land and unutilized land, the area of all other land use types in the study area will increase from 1990 to 2020; (2) the carbon stock in the study area has been on an upward trend in the past 30 years, and the most increase in carbon stock was recorded from 2000 to 2010, which shows that the establishment of the Haba Lake Protected Area has a significant positive effect on the enhancement of the regional ecosystem's carbon storage capacity; and (3) compared with the other two simulation scenarios, the ecological protection scenario has the greatest increase in carbon stock, which is the most favorable to the local ecological construction and sustainable development.