Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand.

Abstract

It is anticipated that extreme weather events due to climate change will increase the prevalence of a number of acute and chronic diseases. As a result, the demand for drugs to prevent or treat those conditions is likely to increase. If the anticipated increase in demand for these drugs is not planned for, already strained medical supply chains will be further strained, resulting in poor health outcomes among affected patient populations and additional costs to health systems. The authors of this study estimated how the anticipated effects of climate change on the prevalence of a sample of four chronic conditions-cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and Alzheimer's disease-will affect demand for the drugs needed to treat them (metoprolol, albuterol, heparin, and donepezil, respectively). To generate these estimates, the authors conducted an environmental scan of the peer-reviewed and gray literature and developed a medical condition-specific systems dynamics model. The model can help inform policies for ensuring drug supply under various climate scenarios.