[Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Vulnerability of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration Based on the SRP Model].

Abstract

The analysis and prediction of ecological vulnerability of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, as a demonstration area for green ecological development planning, is important for understanding the current status and future development trends of the ecological environment in this region. This article is based on the "sensitivity-resilience-pressure" （SRP） model, selecting multi-source remote sensing spatial statistical data, using the entropy weight method to determine the weights of each index, and constructing an evaluation index system for the ecological vulnerability of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration. This study analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal changes of ecological vulnerability in the study area from 2005 to 2020. With the help of the geographical detector model, the driving factors of ecological vulnerability in the study area were explored and combined with the CA-Markov model to predict the ecological vulnerability status in 2025. The results showed that： ① The Central Plains urban agglomeration was primarily characterized by mild vulnerability, exhibiting a spatial trend of higher vulnerability in the northwest and lower in the southeast. Over time, it displayed an evolutionary trend of first increasing and then decreasing. ② Regardless of whether the level of ecological vulnerability increased or decreased, each level tended to undergo large-scale transitions toward the nearest level, with the most important changes occurring in the severe vulnerability level. ③ Building area percentage, biological abundance, fractional vegetation cover, population density, and gross domestic product （GDP） were notable influencing factors that contributed to the ecological vulnerability of the Central Plains urban agglomeration, and the interaction between all these indicators had significantly increased. ④ The predictive results for 2025 showed a downward trend in ecological vulnerability, indicating an improvement in the ecological environment.