Potential Distribution of Fusarium Head Blight Under Climate Change Scenarios in Iran

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to impact crop production and food security, with increased risks of pest infestations and crop failures. Using proximal climate variables and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, this research predicts the current and future potential distribution of Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), a significant disease affecting wheat and barley. The analysis considered two Climate Change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) over two distinct time periods across various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in Iran. The results indicated that the climate conditions for FHB includes maximum temperature, precipitation and minimum temperature in March, contributing 47.85% ± 1.63%, 28.75% ± 3.20% and 23.40% ± 1.56% to its distribution, respectively. Currently, this disease was predicted predominantly to present in AEZs including North West, Caspian Coastal, Central Zagros and Southern Zagros, which collectively account for 49% of Iran's national crop production. However, projections suggested a future shift in these areas to Central, Khorasan, Arid Central and Southern Coastal AEZs, which currently contribute 36% to national crop production. This research emphasises the need for effective management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on agricultural crops in Iran due to the shifting distribution of FHB.