A decline of linear relation between outgoing longwave radiation and temperature during geomagnetic disturbances

Abstract

Climate modeling is the main instrument to predict future climate changes. Despite the recent advances in this field, there is still high uncertainty concerning the contribution of natural (including solar/geomagnetic activity) and anthropogenic factors to the current climate changes. Based on the observational data, we studied the linear relation between Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Near-Surface Temperature (NST) under quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions 1979 through 2022. Water vapor (due to its optical properties) was established to be the main factor to cause a linear OLR-NST relation. The OLR-NST correlation in the optically thin atmosphere above 30° corresponds to quiet geomagnetic conditions and so does the anticorrelation between the above parameters in the optically thick low-latitude atmosphere. The winter ocean regions of the OLR-NST anticorrelation up to 60° in the both hemispheres under quiet geomagnetic conditions related to the clouds. We found the geomagnetic disturbances lead to decrease in the OLR response to the NST variations in the optically thin atmosphere within the mid- and high latitudes, particularly during spring. The considerable changes of linear OLR-NST relation are observed in the optically thick low-latitude atmosphere during geomagnetic disturbances.