Temporal Validation of an FDG-PET-Radiomic Model for Distant-Relapse-Free-Survival After Radio-Chemotherapy for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Pancreatic cancer is a very aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, even when diagnosed at an early stage. This study aimed to validate and refine a radiomic-based [¹⁸F]FDG-PET model to predict distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) in patients with unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). Methods: A Cox regression model incorporating two radiomic features (RFs) and cancer stage (III vs. IV) was temporally validated using a larger cohort (215 patients treated between 2005-2022). Patients received concurrent chemoradiotherapy with capecitabine and hypo-fractionated Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT). Data were split into training (145 patients, 2005-2017) and validation (70 patients, 2017-2022) groups. Seventy-eight RFs were extracted, harmonized, and analyzed using machine learning to develop refined models. Results: The model incorporating Statistical-Percentile10, Morphological-ComShift, and stage demonstrated moderate predictive accuracy (training: C-index = 0.632; validation: C-index = 0.590). When simplified to include only Statistical-Percentile10, performance improved slightly in the validation group (C-index = 0.601). Adding GLSZM3D-grayLevelVariance to Statistical-Percentile10, while excluding Morphological-ComShift, further enhanced accuracy (training: C-index = 0.654; validation: C-index = 0.623). Despite these refinements, all versions showed similar moderate ability to stratify patients into risk classes. Conclusions: [¹⁸F]FDG-PET radiomic features are robust predictors of DRFS after chemoradiotherapy in LAPC. Despite moderate performance, these models hold promise for patient risk stratification. Further validation with external cohorts is ongoing.